{"id":54867,"date":"2025-01-27T10:08:02","date_gmt":"2025-01-27T10:08:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.innovationnewsnetwork.com\/?p=54867"},"modified":"2025-01-27T10:08:02","modified_gmt":"2025-01-27T10:08:02","slug":"sea-level-rise-may-surge-over-1-9-metres-by-2100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.innovationnewsnetwork.com\/sea-level-rise-may-surge-over-1-9-metres-by-2100\/54867\/","title":{"rendered":"Sea-level rise may surge over 1.9 metres by 2100"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>As the global climate crisis intensifies, the looming threat of sea-level rise demands increasingly accurate and actionable projections.<\/h2>\n<p>A study led by researchers from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore), and Delft University of Technology, Netherlands (TU Delft), offers a more reliable approach to forecasting rising sea levels.<\/p>\n<p>Utilising an innovative \u2018fusion\u2019 method, the team projects that under a high-emission scenario, global sea levels could rise between 0.5 and 1.9 metres by 2100, significantly exceeding previous estimates.<\/p>\n<h3>Why current sea-level projections fall short<\/h3>\n<p>Traditional models for predicting sea-level rise rely on a mix of well-understood phenomena like glacier melt and more uncertain processes such as abrupt ice shelf collapses.<\/p>\n<p>These discrepancies lead to a wide variation in predictions, making it challenging to estimate the true extent of future risks.<\/p>\n<p>The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided \u2018likely\u2019 ranges of sea-level rise, representing a 66% probability.<\/p>\n<p>However, these projections lack a \u2018very likely\u2019 range (90% probability), leaving decision-makers with incomplete data to plan for extreme outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>The NTU-led team developed the fusion method to fill this critical gap, which combines strengths from multiple existing models and integrates expert judgment.<\/p>\n<p>This novel approach offers a clearer picture of future sea-level rise, addressing uncertainties and providing a valuable resource for governments and urban planners.<\/p>\n<h3>The fusion approach: A game-changer in sea-level science<\/h3>\n<p>The fusion method blends statistical techniques with expert assessments using data from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/chapter\/chapter-9\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IPCC\u2019s Sixth Assessment Report.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>It incorporates projections with varying confidence levels, including both medium and low-confidence data, to capture extreme possibilities such as sudden ice sheet collapses.<\/p>\n<p>A weighting system ensures that more reliable data is prioritised, while lower-confidence estimates are also factored in to account for uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p>The findings reveal stark contrasts between scenarios:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Low-emission scenario:<\/strong> A very likely sea-level rise of 0.3 to 1.0 metres by 2100, compared to the IPCC\u2019s likely range of 0.3 to 0.6 metres.<\/li>\n<li><strong>High-emission scenario:<\/strong> A very likely sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1.9 metres, significantly exceeding the IPCC\u2019s likely range of 0.6 to 1.0 metres.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These projections suggest that previous estimates may have underestimated the potential for extreme outcomes, with the possibility of sea levels rising nearly 90 cm higher than earlier assessments.<\/p>\n<h3>Implications of rising seas for coastal communities<\/h3>\n<p>The broader uncertainty ranges highlighted by the fusion model underscore the urgent need for robust climate action.<\/p>\n<p>A rise of up to 1.9 metres could have catastrophic impacts on coastal infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities.<\/p>\n<p>Critical urban centres, particularly in low-lying regions, face increased vulnerability to flooding, storm surges, and habitat loss.<\/p>\n<p>According to the research team, accurate projections are essential for guiding infrastructure investments and disaster preparedness.<\/p>\n<p>Coastal cities must adopt adaptive measures, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.innovationnewsnetwork.com\/how-urban-planning-and-infrastructure-design-can-mitigate-floods\/42155\/\">such as seawalls, elevated construction, and ecosystem-based solutions<\/a>, to safeguard against worst-case scenarios.<\/p>\n<h3>Climate mitigation strategies<\/h3>\n<p>The fusion model\u2019s projections also reinforce the importance of reducing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.innovationnewsnetwork.com\/fossil-fuel-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2024-raising-climate-target-concerns\/52758\/\">greenhouse gas emissions<\/a> to mitigate climate change.<\/p>\n<p>While current trends suggest the world is on a trajectory between low- and high-emission scenarios, immediate action to limit emissions could prevent the most extreme sea-level rise outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>Planning for the possibility of extreme sea-level rise, however, remains critical. Decision-makers are encouraged to incorporate very likely projections into risk assessments, ensuring that long-term infrastructure and urban planning can withstand even the most severe scenarios.<\/p>\n<h3>A new standard in sea-level science<\/h3>\n<p>This pioneering study represents a significant breakthrough in sea-level science, addressing long-standing challenges in projecting future risks.<\/p>\n<p>By providing a more comprehensive view of uncertainty, the fusion method sets a new standard for climate projections.<\/p>\n<p>The researchers believe their approach could extend beyond sea-level rise to other areas, such as coastal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.innovationnewsnetwork.com\/rss-hydro-pioneering-geospatial-modelling-technology-for-disaster-resilience\/51550\/\">flooding risk assessments<\/a> and economic impact forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>By refining the fusion method further, they aim to contribute to global efforts to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New projections reveal sea-level rise could reach 1.9m by 2100, emphasising the need for climate mitigation and coastal resilience planning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":54870,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24433],"tags":[689,24549,758],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Sea-level rise may surge over 1.9 metres by 2100<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"New projections reveal sea-level rise could reach 1.9m by 2100, emphasising the need for climate mitigation and coastal resilience planning.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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