\u00a9 iStock\/enot-poloskun<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nCo-author Fortunat Joos of the Oeschger Center said: “The new Bern calculation method is ideally suited to support the stocktake mechanism of the Paris Agreement, as it enables the emission reductions to be recalculated regularly on an adaptive basis.”<\/p>\n
To develop the tool, the team pioneered an algorithm called AERA (adaptive emissions reduction approach) that correlates greenhouse gas emissions with rising temperatures and is adjusted using a control mechanism. This allows current uncertainties in the interaction between these variables to be eliminated.<\/p>\n
Joos explained: “Our adaptive approach circumvents the uncertainties. In the same way that a thermostat continuously adjusts the heating to the required room temperature, our algorithm adjusts the emission reductions according to the latest temperature and emissions data. This will allow us to approach a temperature goal, such as the 2\u00b0C goals, step-by-step and with specific interim goals.”<\/p>\n
Traditionally, climate models with prescribed greenhouse gas emissions have been used, meaning that by the end of the 21st<\/sup> century, the warming for a specific greenhouse gas concentration was uncertain.<\/p>\nHowever, when using climate models with the AERA, emissions are adjusted continuously according to the calculated temperature and the intended temperature goal. This means the model temperature is eventually stabilised at the intended level, and all models simulate the same warming but with different emission pathways.<\/p>\n
Terhaar said: “The AERA enables us to study impacts such as heat waves or ocean acidification for different temperature goals, such as 1.5\u00b0C versus 2\u00b0C versus 3\u00b0C, on a consistent basis and with state-of-the-art models.”<\/p>\n
More robust efforts to combat global warming are essential<\/h3>\n “The AERA method already confirms that international climate policy must be far more ambitious,” said Terhaar.<\/p>\n
The study illuminated that to achieve the 2\u00b0C goals, global emissions would need to reduce by 7% between 2020 and 2025. However, in 2021, emissions increased by 1% compared to 2020. The algorithm suggests that limiting global warming to 1.5\u00b0C will need as much as a 27% reduction by 2025.<\/p>\n
Thomas Fr\u00f6licher, the co-author of the study from the Oeschger Center, concluded: “We need far stricter emissions goals than those to which nations have committed and, above all else, effective implementation of the goals.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Discover a new planning tool that determines the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":28024,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24433],"tags":[689],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Greenhouse gas emissions planning tool helps achieve Paris Agreement<\/title>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n