The triple crisis for Africa\u2019s biodiversity spans climate change, population growth, and changes in land use. Photo Credit: Mirjam Pfeiffer.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nConducting simulations from the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model<\/h3>\n The simulations were conducted utilising the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (ADGVM) for two scenarios: The \u2018middle-of-the-road\u2019 scenario, where in which current societal developments continue and some climate change mitigation measures are adopted, and the \u2018fossil-fuelled development\u2019 scenario.<\/p>\n
In the latter scenario, social and economic development is based on the increased exploitation of fossil fuel resources with a high coal content and an energy-intensive lifestyle worldwide. Additionally, the researchers analysed global scenarios for the development of the human population and of land utilisation.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe results demonstrate that in both scenarios, tree cover generally increases in today\u2019s grasslands and savannas in Africa. For protected areas in West Africa, our analyses revealed climate-induced vegetation change combined with high future population and land-use pressures,\u201d said Martens.<\/p>\n
\u201cOnly for North Africa, we expect that a large share of protected areas to be without vegetation changes in combination with decreased pressure from population and land use \u2013 generally, the pressure on protected areas is therefore increasing.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to the study, the \u2018fossil-fuelled development\u2019 scenario resulted in greater climate-induced changes in tree cover and higher land-use pressure at the continental scale, while the \u2018middle-of-the-road\u2019 scenario was characterised by higher future population pressure.<\/p>\n
The future threat to protected areas<\/h3>\n \u201cOur work demonstrates that in the future, almost all protected areas are threatened by at least one factor: climate change leading to major vegetation changes, a large increase in the population around the protected area, or growing land-use pressure. The biodiversity of protected areas in West Africa may be particularly affected by this \u2013 facing a combination of strong climate change impacts, population growth, and land-use changes,\u201d concluded Martens.<\/p>\n
\u201cA sound understanding of individual socio-economic and ecological conditions, as well as of existing or potential future conflicts, is an important basis for the planning of protected areas. Conservation and protection strategies require to be regionally and locally adapted. This can contribute to the protection of the unique diversity of Africa\u2019s ecosystems!\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A research team, including PhD student Carola Martens, from Senckenberg and South Africa\u2019s Stellenbosch University, has investigated how climate change could pose a threat to Africa\u2019s biodiversity. In this study, scientists demonstrate where these environmental impacts may coincide with population growth and land-use changes. According to their simulations, biodiversity in almost all protected areas will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":23026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24433],"tags":[745,3475,789],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Climate change: A threat to Africa\u2019s biodiversity<\/title>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n